All of these players seem capable of helping the Astros on the field at some point in 2015, and there’s more where they came from. Prospects that are further away from the majors, like right-hander Michael Feliz or third baseman Colin Moran or left-hander Josh Hader or outfielder Domingo Santana, could be dealt for veteran help if and when Luhnow decides it’s time to step on his AL West rivals’ throats. And Appel, who is as much of an enigma as ever with a 6.03 ERA in Double-A, still has the stuff to dominate if he ever figures it out.
That’s why the rest of the AL West should be very concerned about the staying power of these Astros, not just in 2015, but for years to come: They’re playing this well before the cavalry has arrived. (Or in the case of Correa, the heavy artillery.) Plus, two of the finest minor league talents in the Astros’ portfolio haven’t even joined the organization yet. The Brady Aiken Debacle may have been a PR nightmare, but its on-field impact is much less significant, because thanks to the new CBA rules, as compensation for not signing the first pick in last year’s draft, the Astros get … the second pick in this year’s draft. They also earned the no. 5 overall pick by going 70-92 last year, giving them two of the top five picks in next month’s draft. No team has ever had two of the top 10picks, let alone two of the top five. Based on historic trends, and assuming the Astros don’t get tripped up by a physical again, their two picks should turn into a top-30 and a top-100 prospect when next year’s rankings come out.
Along with all of the prospects and young players that the Astros have amassed, they also have the payroll flexibility that comes from having a bunch of pre-arbitration, minimum-salaried guys on their roster. Their $72.5 million Opening Day payroll — nearly triple their 2013 payroll! — ranked 29th in baseball, ahead of only the Marlins. Comcast SportsNet Houston going bankrupt was a well-publicized debacle (yes, another one), but the Astros still play in the fifth-largest TV market in the country and can sustain a payroll twice the current size. The Astros have the ability, if not the desire, to sit at the big boys’ table in free agency.
As the Astros survey the landscape nearly a third of the way through the season, they’re probably acutely aware that they’ve been a little lucky so far — lucky to be 30-18 (their Pythagorean record, based on their run differential, is 27-21), and lucky to be in a division where no other team is above .500. So it might be tempting for the front office to think of 2015 as house money, to stay focused on building for 2016 and beyond, and to treat a playoff run this season as a pleasant fringe benefit.
But if it’s true that the Astros have benefited from good fortune this season, it’s also true that fortune favors the bold. No team should be so committed to its rebuilding plan that it refuses to alter its course when a division title presents itself years before anyone thought it possible. The Astros have enough major-league-ready talent in the minors to solidify their hold on the AL West this year — and they have enough additional talent coming through the pipeline, and enough money to burn in the future, that making some small sacrifices to win this year shouldn’t derail their plans to win for several more years to come.
If they haven’t already, it’s time for the other teams in the AL West to take notice: There’s a new power in the division, and it’s not going to fade anytime soon. The Astros were long a laughingstock, but there’s nothing funny about them now. Not the claim that they can win the division in 2015. And certainly not the claim that they could win a few more division titles after that. {Retreived from Grantland }
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